VRMA Debrief: Day 1 and The AirDNA 2024 Forecast

Quick Update from the VRMA International Conference

I’m so excited to be at the Vacation Rental Management Association International Meeting in Orlando, FL this week! I have so much to share, new connections and new venders to check out! I really wanted to share notes from one particular session with you today - and more to come this week, but first let me tell you a little bit about VRMA and why I chose to be a member and attend their events.

About VRMA

VRMA is a long-standing professional association dedicated to those of us in vacation rentals - to be clear, anyone managing short-term rentals will and do find value here. When formed, vacation rentals were the norm; our language has shifted with the growth of the sharing economy and diversification into the short-term rental industry as it exists today, catering to leisure, business, and “buleisure” travel (that would be business-leisure).

Events like the VRMA International 2023 Conference provides networking with people who have been managing short-term rentals for decades - as well as those more recent into the industry. A key advantage for this conference stems from having a lot more experience than others I’ve attended in the industry. Our “elders” have much to share!

The sessions are selected by a committee, providing a well-rounded educational opportunity. While no organization is perfect, professional associations provide checks and balances in crafting an agenda; which in this day and age of information- and mis-information is very helpful. I have sat in conferences and listened to biased and incorrect information being accepted without question because someone was on stage. Having an educational committee reviewing and selecting sessions is worth the price of membership, much less all the other perks!

Importantly, a key focus over the last couple of years for VRMA has been providing critical data and resources to help combat unjust regulations - and contribute to positive collaborations within communities on the topic of short-term rentals, by funding economic impact studies and providing grants to aid in covering legal costs associated with fighting draconian regulations. In my view, this is a key role for an organization like VRMA.

So if you are curious or want to learn more - check out VRMA HERE.

AirDNA 2024 Forecast for The STR Industry

My first session today was the AirDNA 2024 Forecast; I took copious notes but a few things I think you should know.

2023 has been a “recovery” year in short-term rentals. Demand overtook supply in 2020 - 2022, driving up prices. But supply has now outpaced demand. So this means, in many markets, there are more short-term rentals than there are guests looking to book. Seasonality had disappeared in late 2020 through 2022 in many markets, but it has returned. That means lower occupancy and lower ADR as managers drop prices to try and compel bookings.

A year ago, we were on the cusp of a recession - which has not yet hit. But the housing market is a different story; while its a bit of a chaotic story when you look at the numbers, housing values definitely dropped in some markets. High interest rates means people only sell if they have to. The narrative is that dropping ADR means investors will sell off their short-term rentals, but the churn rate isn’t telling that story (at least, not yet?!)

2024 is unlikely to see any growth in ADR; some markets (coastal mountain and urban) are likely to see further ADR decline before a recovery in 2025-26.

Never once was the word “saturation” used but increased supply and dropping ADR/RevPar means the same thing, in my opinion. Given the prevalence of the term being bandied about in our industry this year, I admit to some curiosity as to why not- but I'm not an economist. I'll just leave it at that.

Is it all doom and gloom? No! Yes, supply is up - demand is ALSO up (but not as much as supply) so truly - this is a normalization period following the crazy pandemic revenge travel. Short-term rentals aren't going anywhere.

Looking to invest? The advice remains - small and mid-sized town, where housing costs remain lower.

There was so much more in the session, but these are some highlights. I’m sure much of this will be published by AirDNA soon, which I’ll share.

If you read my blogs (thank you!) you know I’m all about data, and AirDNA is a key data source for my work and the content I put out. Why AirDNA? They have alot of experience, they pull from Airbnb, VRBO AND build in assumptions about direct bookings in order to report as close to actual as a data clearinghouse can. If you want to lean into data a bit more, check out the STR Data Insight Podcast hosted by AirDNA and get more insights about the data available to you for your STR business - and on issues impacting the industry.

Stay tuned - and sign up HERE; I’ll be sending out my comprehensive post-VRMA report covering all the sessions I attended to my email list.

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Hey Boss! I'm Kate, owner/founder of The CEO Host. If you are interested in taking a leap into short-term rentals - or have some questions about your existing business, my goal - passion, and career, is to help YOU succeed. I've coached hundreds of folks getting started or looking to optimize, analyzed more deals (and duds) than I could count, completed thousands of hours of education and training, attended conferences... So don't be shy. A good CEO knows to bring in expert help - and that's what I'm here for! Lets HOP ON A CALL and chat!

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